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What to Expect from Vancouver's Real Estate Market: A Closer Look at the Second Half of 2023

Updated: Nov 16, 2023

The Vancouver real estate market has been a hot topic in recent years, with dynamic shifts and surprises keeping everyone on their toes. In this blog post, we'll delve into the latest updates from both the British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) and the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV), for a comprehensive understanding of Vancouver’s 2023 real estate market.

Vancouver's 2023 Real Estate Market

Sales Figures

According to the BCREA report, August 2023 saw a total of 6,608 residential unit sales recorded in Multiple Listing Service (MLS) systems in British Columbia. This represents a 15.7 percent increase from August 2022, indicating a strong market overall. However, the figure also hints at a potential slowdown compared to previous months.

BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson notes that the market is "starting to settle back into a trend of below-normal activity following an unexpected surge in the spring." While sales have been robust, they have not maintained the same fervor observed earlier this year.

REBGV predicted approximately 28,500 sales across Metro Vancouver by the end of 2023, reflecting a 2.6 percent decrease from 2022. Year-to-date, sales have reached 19,280, just 4.3 percent below the predicted year-to-date total, indicating that the forecast remains on track.

The average MLS residential price in BC for August 2023 was $958,424, a 5.2 percent increase from the previous year. This indicates that, despite a slight dip in sales activity, the prices of residential properties continue to rise.

Resilient Market

Despite the shift in sales trends, the Metro Vancouver residential market has remained remarkably resilient, considering the challenges posed by mortgage qualifying criteria. Mortgage rates have risen, but the market has adapted.

This resilience is reflected in the BCREA report, which shows a 5.2 percent increase in the average MLS residential price in BC compared to August 2022. The total sales dollar volume also increased by 21.7 percent year-over-year, reaching $6.3 billion. These figures demonstrate the market's ability to weather economic changes.

Year-to-Date Comparison

To gain a broader perspective, it's essential to look at year-to-date figures. In this regard, the BCREA report reveals that the BC residential sales dollar volume was down 17.4 percent compared to the same period in 2022. Residential unit sales saw a 13.4 percent decline to 54,126 units, while the average MLS residential price decreased by 4.6 percent to $973,011.

This data showcases the ongoing challenges faced by the market, but it also underscores its resilience in adapting to evolving economic conditions.

Risks to the Forecasts: Economic Factors at Play

The economic landscape plays a vital role in shaping the real estate market. Canada's inflation reached historically high levels at the start of 2023 and has since shown signs of decline. With inflation receding and monetary policy remaining restrictive, the risk of "stagflation" has diminished, while the possibility of an economic recession due to overly restrictive monetary policy looms.

Navigating a Dynamic Market

Navigating this ever-evolving landscape requires careful consideration, but the market's resilience offers hope and opportunity for those willing to explore it. For those considering entering the market, whether as buyers or sellers, staying informed about these trends and consulting with experts like Prompton Real Estate can be invaluable.

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