The Metro Vancouver housing market is entering fall with a sense of caution, as the latest data suggests that recent mortgage rate reductions have yet to ignite significant buyer demand. Here's an in-depth look at how the market performed in September 2024.
A Closer Look at the Numbers
Home sales across Metro Vancouver dipped by 3.8% year-over-year in September 2024, with 1,852 properties sold. This number is notably 26% below the 10-year seasonal average, signaling a continuation of the cautious trend seen over the past few years. Even with the Bank of Canada’s rate cuts, buyers remain hesitant, and sales have tracked slightly below expectations, though optimism persists that sales for the year could still exceed 2023.
At the same time, new listings surged, with 6,144 properties added to the MLS® in September—a 12.8% increase compared to September 2023. The total number of properties available for sale also climbed, with 14,932 listings marking a 31.2% increase year-over-year and 24.2% above the 10-year seasonal average. This influx of inventory offers buyers a wider selection, though it hasn’t yet translated into stronger sales.
Market Balance and Pricing Trends
As of September 2024, the sales-to-active listings ratio across all property types sits at 12.8%, reflecting a market teetering on the edge of favoring buyers.
Breaking it down by property type:
Detached homes: 9.1%
Attached homes: 16.9%
Apartments: 14.6%
With the ratio for detached homes dipping below the 12% mark, downward pressure on prices is starting to emerge. Historically, prices tend to drop when the ratio stays below 12% for a prolonged period, while ratios above 20% generally signal rising prices.
The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is now $1,179,700, reflecting a 1.8% decrease compared to September 2023 and a 1.4% drop from August 2024.
This trend of modest price declines is seen across all property types:
Detached Homes: The benchmark price is $2,022,200, up 0.5% year-over-year but down 1.3% month-over-month.
Apartment Homes: The benchmark price is $762,000, down 0.8% from both September 2023 and August 2024.
Attached Homes: The benchmark price is $1,099,200, down 0.5% year-over-year and 1.8% from August 2024.
Future Outlook and Considerations
Despite the rising inventory, the market has yet to see a substantial increase in buyer activity. As Andrew Lis, GVR's director of economics and data analytics, noted, "With some buyers choosing to stay on the sidelines, inventory levels have sustained healthy gains, providing much more selection to anyone searching for a home." However, prices have been trending downward due to slower sales in relation to the growing number of new listings.
Looking ahead, further reductions in mortgage rates could potentially encourage buyers to re-enter the market later this fall. With two more Bank of Canada rate decisions expected by year-end, there’s a possibility that demand may pick up, especially if buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines decide to act.
In summary, the fall 2024 Metro Vancouver housing market is characterized by growing inventory and price stabilization. While buyer demand remains cautious, potential shifts in borrowing conditions may lead to increased activity later this year. Buyers and sellers alike should stay informed and ready to adapt to these evolving market conditions.
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