The Metro Vancouver housing market has shown signs of renewed activity, with home sellers entering the market in larger numbers than in previous years. The latest data from the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) reveals a dramatic year-over-year increase in new listings and continued sales momentum, signaling a shift in market dynamics.
A Closer Look at the Numbers
January 2025 marked a significant uptick in home listings, with a total of 5,566 residential properties newly listed on the MLS® in Metro Vancouver. This represents a 46.9% increase compared to the 3,788 listings recorded in January 2024, and is 31.1% above the 10-year seasonal average of 4,247. This surge in new listings follows a period of growing buyer interest that has extended into the new year.
On the sales side, Metro Vancouver saw 1,552 residential transactions in January 2025, an 8.8% increase from the 1,427 sales recorded in January 2024. However, this is still 11.3% below the 10-year seasonal average of 1,749. This increase in sales suggests that while buyers remain active, the market is still not yet at full pre-pandemic levels.
Market Balance and Pricing Trends
With new listings outpacing sales in January 2025, the overall market remained in balanced territory, with the sales-to-active listings ratio standing at 14.1%. Breaking this down by property type, the ratios are as follows:
Detached Homes: 9.2%
Attached Homes: 18.5%
Apartments: 16.5%
A ratio below 12% can often lead to downward pressure on prices, while a ratio above 20% typically signals upward price momentum. While the overall market remains balanced, the attached and apartment segments are leaning toward a seller’s market, with more competition for those property types.
The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver remained relatively stable in January 2025. As the market enters the new year, sellers may see little fluctuation in home prices, though certain property types, particularly attached homes and apartments, may start to experience price increases as buyer demand persists.
Here’s a closer look at benchmark prices by property type:
Detached Homes: $1,736,800 (up 0.6% from January 2024, down 0.4% from December 2024)
Apartment Homes: $756,800 (down 0.8% from January 2024, unchanged from December 2024)
Attached Homes: $1,042,500 (up 1.5% from January 2024, up 0.2% from December 2024)
Bank of Canada’s Rate Cuts and Their Impact on the Housing Market
As we begin 2025, the economic landscape remains unpredictable, with significant developments in both the national economy and the housing market. Last week, the Bank of Canada (BOC) implemented its sixth consecutive rate cut, lowering the overnight lending rate to 3.00%. This move comes amid a sluggish Canadian economy, where GDP growth has failed to meet expectations and concerns over potential tariffs on Canadian goods continue to linger. The BOC has indicated that it remains committed to supporting the economy, signaling that further rate cuts may be forthcoming in the near future.
Looking ahead to the next policy meeting scheduled for March 12th, there is widespread anticipation that the Bank will continue its rate-cutting cycle. Money markets are pricing in a 25 basis point reduction for March, and some projections suggest that the BOC may implement a total of 75 basis points in cuts over the coming months. This could bring the overnight lending rate to as low as 2.25%.
For borrowers, these rate cuts bring potential benefits. As of now, bank prime rates are as follows:
5.20%: Scotiabank, RBC, BMO, National Bank, CIBC
5.35%: TD Bank
These reductions offer relief to those with variable-rate mortgages and those looking to refinance. In fact, we’re already seeing signs of renewed activity in the real estate market, with more offers being made without subject clauses and a return to multiple offer scenarios, especially in certain property types. This increase in competition suggests that more buyers are rushing to secure homes before anticipated rate hikes or further changes in the economic outlook.
James De Vuyst Prompton's Mortgage advisor has commented "The outlook remains cautious. While the BOC’s rate cuts can offer short-term relief, the ongoing economic challenges—such as sluggish GDP growth, trade uncertainties, and inflationary pressures—mean that the path forward could be unpredictable. Mortgage holders and investors must remain vigilant to potential market shifts and be prepared for changes in financial conditions as the Bank continues to respond to evolving economic conditions."
Future Outlook and Considerations
Looking ahead to 2025, the market is expected to experience moderate price growth, as demand continues to outpace the supply of new listings. The Bank of Canada’s recent series of rate cuts have contributed to favorable borrowing conditions, encouraging more buyers to enter the market.
However, economic uncertainties—such as the ongoing trade discussions and potential tariffs—could introduce challenges and volatility in the months to come. The full impact of these factors will depend on future economic developments, which could influence buyer sentiment and market conditions in unpredictable ways.
In the short term, home sellers should remain optimistic, especially in the attached and apartment segments, where competition is heating up. Buyers, on the other hand, may continue to benefit from lower mortgage rates for the time being, but should also be prepared for potential price increases as the market shifts toward a more seller-friendly environment.
As always, it remains essential for both buyers and sellers to stay informed about economic conditions and market trends as they make their decisions in the months ahead.
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